Summit Post
China’s Sinopec, the world’s largest refiner by capacity, expects Chinese oil demand to fall by 8.9% in 2026 compared to 2025. This decline is driven by higher oil prices and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which are reducing demand for gasoline and diesel. Sinopec estimates a 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) drop in total oil demand this year.
Gasoline demand is expected to decline by 8.7%, while diesel consumption is projected to fall by 11.4%. Jet fuel demand, however, is expected to increase by 1.3% due to holiday travel and recovery in international routes. Sinopec’s research arm, the Economics & Development Research Institute, notes that high oil prices and geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran war, have accelerated the shift toward EVs.
China has managed the Strait of Hormuz crisis better than expected, reducing crude oil imports and temporarily halting fuel exports. This has further suppressed oil demand. Amid falling road fuel demand, Sinopec is shifting its focus toward new energy and chemicals to grow revenues and profits, despite declining domestic fuel sales that have been weighing on its earnings for two years.
The company reported a 8.6% year-on-year decline in refined oil product consumption, with gasoline down by 7.9% and diesel down by 11.5%, while jet fuel consumption rose by 1.3% due to increased travel demand.
